By 2030, satellite-fired weapons will likely be here, scalable lasers will bring unforeseen range both within and beyond the earth’s atmosphere and satellite sensor sophistication and weaponization would likely determine the victor. Who has more lower flying, faster, armed and better networked satellites? China now have a modern army.Correct Answer:First of all the US would win only if it was a military to military conflict. Yet, the Chinese government is aware that the large size of its forces in part reflects an antiquated mid-twentieth century force structure emphasizing massive, low-quality ground armies. Photo: Xinhuanet Mean… Recommended: Air War: Stealth F-22 Raptor vs. F-14 Tomcat (That Iran Still Flies), Recommended: A New Report Reveals Why There Won't Be Any 'New' F-22 Raptors, Recommended: How an ‘Old’ F-15 Might Kill Russia’s New Stealth Fighter. Kris Osborn is defense editor for the National Interest. Click here to register. While some might scoff at the distinction—after all, doctrine does not prevent a country from launching a first strike if it wants to—the reality is that offensive and defensive nuclear warfare involve different force structures. But, China is slowly developing multi-national institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its aspirational Silk Road project in hopes of fostering stronger ties. It is a market and a technology denial regime that seeks to win back manufacturing that the U.S. and European countries have lost to China. The agreement has been hard-fought, … Whatever you need a website for, create yours today with Wix: https://www.wix.com/go/infographics What if China and Russia teamed up against USA? A ship, for example, may detect an attacking jet and pass the targeting data to a nearby fighter which can then use the telemetry to launch a missile without exposing itself by turning on its radar—or vice versa. "And let me tell you something: If he ever won, China will own the United States, OK? Who has better alternatives to GPS? This in contrast to fielding a larger, and cheaper, number of platforms which was typical in the past such as World War II. A recent think tank wargame explores the prospect of a massive war between China and America and Japan in 2030, introducing many war-time questions about submarines, amphibious attack, surface ships and fifth-generation fighters. Democratic nominee Joe Biden would deal with Beijing in a "much more traditional" way if he wins the election, said Max Baucus, a former U.S. ambassador to China. By any estimation, it would be the largest engagement the world has seen in just about 100 years, and like … And the United States could very well lose. Two superpowers eye each other uneasily across the Pacific—one well established after decades of Cold War conflict, the other a rising power eager to reclaim regional hegemony. Today, the PLA is only beginning to implement a more joint-operations oriented doctrine while struggling to overcome the traditional parochialism of the military hierarchy, which occupies a prestigious place in its society. It’s not clear anyone can win. Operationally, the PLA and U.S. military have very different needs. Therefore, war between China and the U.S.-Japan alliance ensues. This presents problems and challenges for both countries, particularly in light of China’s massive uptick in amphibious assault ship construction. The winner of that engagement would be much better positioned to out-range and out-attack the opposing force. Should the U.S. Navy succeed in engineering new, extremely sophisticated layered ship defenses with now-emerging weapons such as laser interceptors, drones and electronic warfare by 2030, Chinese attacks might be stopped. For example, U.S. operations in Asia are heavily dependent on alliances with South Korea, Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and more recently, India. U.S. tariffs have taxed $550 billion of Chinese goods since February 2018; virtually everything China sells to America is subject to Trump’s trade war with the world's most populous country. Others are following in its footsteps. Anil Ashar 04 August 2019. Photo: US Air Force Tech. Right now, the outcome with that would seem extremely uncertain. According to research organization RAND, should a major conflict arise in Russia and China's 'backyards,' US … Beijing made headlines on Wednesday when Wu Qian, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman, called last weekend’s protests in Hong Kong “absolutely intolerable” and suggested China … Here's what one war game forecasted could happen. In the year 2016 China and the United States are both world superpowers. (Moscow has a similar stance, claiming it may use tactical nuclear weapons to ‘de-escalate' a conventional war.) Several of these Asian countries, as well as western and central Europe, also rely upon U.S. military forces to meet their security needs. This brings a potential advantage as the strategy would be to avoid a major, protracted ground war against China’s one-million strong, armored land Army. Join the discussion. Same would be true on the Chinese side, meaning the maritime force with the best defenses would most likely have an upper hand. On the one hand, Chinese industry still lags notably behind in the development of technologies such as jet engines and suffers quality control issues. “It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia. Just as importantly, strong diplomatic alliances are necessary to maintain those overseas bases and keep them supplied with fuel, personnel and munitions. The PLA’s last major armed conflict was a not very successful punitive invasion of Vietnam in 1979. Despite all of this, the United States military still has vastly more recent combat experience, particularly in joint operations coordinating multiple services. Still, the balance of power between nations will likely play a role alongside diplomacy—a fleet that is never used in war may still prevent one, for example, by deterring possible opponents. Given all of these factors, sheer force size in terms of numbers of ships, provided each had several hundred, might be less significant than the technical elements of the weapons themselves. One thing is for sure: among the losers will be us. Starting in 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping—who seems set to remain in power indefinitely—announced a major reform initiative to radically downsize PLA ground forces to improve their quality. Ultimately, the country with the more advanced AI-enabled sensors, long-range weapons and surface-to-air-to-undersea networking would destroy the other. China will win the Sino-U.S. trade war, said the president of Independent Strategy on Monday. China today has the largest military on the planet, with two million active personnel in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The two biggest powers in the world, China and the United States, are on a collision course. By contrast, the U.S. military operates over two-thousand fourth-generation combat jets, increasingly being supplemented by fifth-generation stealth designs. However, on the other, it is relatively strong in the realm of electronics and is happy to copy both Western and Russian technologies. Also, Aegis radar and other elements of the Navy’s ship-based layered defenses would determine whether Chinese land-fired anti-ship missiles were able to successfully destroy U.S. carriers and warships. Furthermore, Chinese hackers have also proven reasonably adept at hacking into foreign computer systems and perpetrating industrial espionage, but Beijing has at least so far refrained from election-manipulation tactics practiced by its neighbor Russia. China, by contrast, has a defensive nuclear doctrine claiming it will only employ nukes if attacked with them first. Still, history shows that there is often a risk of war when a rising power challenges the ascendancy of an existing one. Beijing's non-interference and no-questions-asked approach to human rights and corruption issues have won it many friendly governments on the African continent. There are only 187 F-22s, and the F-35 that is supposed to be joining them is running into all sorts of problems in the test phase, including the hi-tech helmet that is supposed to put all kinds of info in the pilot's visor that doesn't work right yet. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. Given this, the country with the best air support would be likely to emerge victorious, hinging upon on whether the Chinese fifth-generation J-20 and J-31 stealth fighters can equal or out-perform the F-22 and F-35. Beijing and Washington have profound—though fortunately not comprehensive—disagreements on matters of global governance. By … China is also an enthusiastic adopter of this doctrine and has arguably made greater strides in developing armed drones and advancing networking capabilities than Russia or various European countries. After more than two years of rising tension, the US and China have signed a deal aimed at calming trade frictions. Please login to post a comment or reply. China is only beginning to acquire such logistics and is situated in a very crowded neighborhood surrounded by potential military competitors such as India, Russia and Japan. The United States maintains more than twenty times the number of nuclear warheads that China does (1,350 compared to 45 deployed and 4,000 compared to … Initially, by 2030 the Chinese Navy is likely much larger and potentially just as sophisticated as the U.S. Navy, or at least in a position to rival American technical supremacy. The U.S. and China are going toe to toe in their fight over trade. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University. Given the existing “Mutual Defense Pact,” the U.S. sends aircraft carriers and other assets to support Japan, with specific instructions not to exchange fire with Chinese forces. © Copyright 2020 Center for the National Interest All Rights Reserved, Air War: Stealth F-22 Raptor vs. F-14 Tomcat (That Iran Still Flies), A New Report Reveals Why There Won't Be Any 'New' F-22 Raptors, How an ‘Old’ F-15 Might Kill Russia’s New Stealth Fighter, according to the Arms Control Association. (Personally, this author does not believe contemporary Japan will become an aggressive military power anytime soon, but the Chinese don't see it that way due to their bitter memories of Japanese invasion.) Recent studies from the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government in Boston and the Center for a New American Security in Washington suggest India maintains an … Additionally, Beijing has only a few military alliances with Pakistan, North Korea, and a few southeast Asian nations. At the same time, the PLA also fields 500 Type 99 tanks which are in a similar ballpark to the very capable U.S. M1 Abrams. The United States has a massive arsenal in a nuclear ‘triad'. The country with this advantage could potentially destroy large portions of the opposition military from space in the initial portions of any conflict. For example, see the century in between the defeat of Napoleon and World War I, during which there was no European-wide war. At least initially, it is likely that the U.S.-Japan alliance would attack with the more limited goal of liberating the island chain or at least repelling the Chinese presence from the contested area of the East China Sea. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. The PLA and Peoples’ Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) have also concentrated on training a Special Forces and Marine branch suitable for more expeditionary operations. For example, the PLA musters 8,000 tanks—but 3,000 are 1950s-era Type 59 and Type 63 tanks. America's massive military spending reflects its technology-oriented approach to warfare, a paradigm which seeks to send a drone or guided missile in place of a man (or woman) whenever possible—especially as every friendly casualty may result in a political firestorm. Also, whose communications would get jammed? China would have to completely capture the disputed territories and move into India to … For instance, of its 1,700 aircraft, roughly a third are dated J-7 fighters, while another fourth include modern fourth-generation J-10s and J-11s comparable to U.S. F-15s and F-16s and even a few fifth-generation stealth fighters. Interestingly, one of the wargame circumstances described in the Foreign Policy report involved a decision to “jam” or attack Chinese communications systems as opposed to pursuing a more kinetic or direct fire option. In a recent article in the journal Diplomacy and Statecraft, Rovner notes that most analysts, and apparently most soldiers, expect that a war between China … Sgt. Undersea war would also be decisive, as the country dominating below the surface would be in position for forward attack and clandestine reconnaissance missions. This requires globe-spanning logistical capabilities including hundreds of transport planes, aerial refueling tankers to keep jet fighters and transports aloft, and amphibious transports and carriers to convey Marine units. Declaring a 50-mile exclusion zone around the Senkakus, Beijing deploys a ring of surface ships, submarines, warplanes, and drones—backed by ballistic missiles based on the Chinese mainland…”. Both the U.S. and Chinese warships will be armed with massive, long-range attack weapons, so it would seem that the prevailing force would be that with the best and highest resolution sensors. In the event China attacked Taiwan, for instance, the United States could impose a trade embargo or go after China’s base in Djibouti and facilities in … By any estimation, it would be the largest engagement the world has seen in just about 100 years, and like no other in history, it would be entirely multi-domain. Also, some kind of land-engagement, if on smaller swaths of terrain, would be expected due to amphibious assault. Therefore, war between China and the U.S.-Japan alliance ensues. The Chinese system can be brutal, inefficient and repressive at … China is already launching its second high-tech Type 075 amphibious assault ship and is expected to have a large and dangerous amphibious fleet by 2030. A global pandemic has, in a matter of months, changed the discourse on global order and U.S.-China great power competition. The PLA Air Force also has a similar issue. AN IRAN expert has revealed who nuclear missile-capable superpowers Russia and China would side with if World War 3 broke out due to an Iran-US clash. Japan counterattacks, sending in amphibious warships, submarines, surface warships and aircraft-backed Marines. For example, Chinese troops have deployed as peacekeepers in Mali, where they have seen some action, and recently opened a naval base in Djibouti—just seven miles across from a long-established American base there. China’s navy has just completed a mission that has left US officials terrified – and it has serious implications for Australia’s security. Fortunately, there are historical examples of rival superpowers coexisting mostly peacefully for long periods of time. 1 Comments. This is made up of ballistic missile submarines (which are basically so hard to hunt there is no way to stop them all); nuclear bombers (useful for signaling to an opponent the possibility of a nuclear attack, or for hitting mobile targets); and ground-based missile silos (the least flexible of the three, but these allow more targets to be hit and force an enemy to devote resources to attack them). China's economy is rebounding strongly China, … A maritime engagement between the United States and China would likely incorporate a wide range of complex and dangerous variables. That does not work, according to the wargame scenario. Don't have an account? Much of the outcome of this kind of war might be decided by several distinct factors, such as the technical evolution of Aegis radar and accurate, long-range sensors. © Copyright 2020 Center for the National Interest All Rights Reserved. In one corner, President Donald Trump is swinging away with tariffs and blacklisting Huawei Technologies. China would have to get the bulk of its ground forces across the Himalayas as fast as possible, or the war would grind to a halt. Posture for Intervention Abroad and Defense At Home. Who will win the China-US trade war? China is also expanding its capacities for longer-range expeditionary operations befitting its status a superpower—particularly in Africa, where Chinese companies maintain a dominant and ever-growing presence. Chilling World War III 'wargames' show US forces crushed by Russia and China. PLA ground and air forces still exhibit a wide range of quality, fielding both early Cold War systems and cutting-edge variants. The United States maintains more than twenty times the number of nuclear warheads that China does (1,350 compared to 45 deployed and 4,000 compared to 270 when including stockpiles, according to the Arms Control Association). Therefore, the Pentagon prefers to develop comprehensive intelligence and communication capabilities to direct a few weapons systems with a high degree of precision. Any halt to the Chinese advance would be a de facto win for India. Moreover, Beijing has built up its forces and road network on its border with India, and also constructed a series of bases in nearby countries to ‘envelop' India. In a championship … The US could no longer win a war against China. According to a story in Foreign Policy, the Center for New American Security’s wargame unfolds as follows: “…A Chinese flotilla lands 50 soldiers on Uotsuri Jima, an island in the East China Sea that is part of the Senkakus, an island chain owned by Japan but also claimed by China. These newer U.S. planes theoretically enjoy a massive edge in long-range aerial combat and in penetrating enemy airspace. US-China relations have deteriorated markedly since then, with President Trump slapping tariffs on the country to correct what he says have been years of one-sided trade agreements. Ryan Crane While America holds the current stealth jet lead with the only fielded fifth-generation fighter, Russia and China are both gunning for it. International trade … If a war broke out between the United States and China, the clash between two of the world’s most powerful militaries would be horrific. They will own it." And China exports more to the United States than it imports from the United States (a fact that clearly riles up Trump and was a key instigator for the trade war). This area of war, it seems clear, would also expectedly hinge upon air power, because if U.S. stealth fighters and bombers were able to penetrate Chinese airspace and destroy land-fired weapons, then ship defenses would have a tremendous advantage as well. Such an arsenal is capable of launching a broader assault designed to disable an opponent's military capability to retaliate and therefore more easily includes the option of a first strike. Who will have better sensors and networking? This paradigm favors ‘networked warfare', in which various weapons systems exchange sensor data. Fortunately, despite profoundly different political systems, China and the United States are not as intrinsically hostile to each other as were the West and the Soviet Union—in fact, they have a high degree of economic interdependence. They also have reasons to mistrust each other. However, China still retains tense relations with India, a country with a comparably huge population but only one-quarter of the gross domestic product, from which China seized Himalayan territory in a brief 1962 war. Scary vision of all-out war between China and the US. Perhaps the country with superior space weapons, electronic warfare capabilities and “hardened” communications would be best positioned? US President Donald Trump once claimed that trade wars are ‘good and easy to win’, yet in his tussle with China the data appears to be proving him wrong (Reuters)History tells us that when a rising power meets a waning power, it leads to war. However, China only spends slightly over one-third as much as the United States, accounting for thirteen percent of annual global military spending in 2017, compared to thirty-five percent by the United States according to SIPRI. However, if a more immediate or short-term objective evolved into full-scale war, major force-on-force land war might be unavoidable. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. America's massive military spending reflects its technology-oriented approach to warfare, a paradigm which seeks to send a drone or guided missile in place of a man (or woman) whenever possible—especially as every friendly casualty may result in a political firestorm. The force “out-ranging” the other with intelligence, search, and reconnaissance through aerial or surface drone sensors and sensor-enabled F-35s, might be likely to rule the day. ... and “might struggle to win or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia”. 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